Weekly Commentary November 9th, 2026

Weekly Market Commentary

November 09th, 2026 

The Markets 

Investors reoriented themselves. 

Navigating in the mountains can be a complicated task. Hikers can become disoriented when they run into overlapping ridges, overgrown trails, or unexpected weather. Knowing how to find your way to the right path is an invaluable skill. Last week, investors needed all their skills as they: 

• Continued up the AI trail. Artificial intelligence (AI) is so new that investors often are traveling unexplored territory. Prior to the midterm elections, the Nasdaq Composite Index, which has significant exposure to AI-related companies, was near correction territory (down about 10 percent from a previous peak) and semiconductor stocks were in a bear market (down 20 percent from a previous peak), despite solid third-quarter earnings. Al Root of Barron’s explained,  

“Clearly, investors are worried about AI—in particular the market’s ability to fund the trillion-dollar building cycle…Investors want to hear about 2027, and there is precious little formal guidance for the year ahead.” 

• Welcomed certainty with a relief rally. On Wednesday, the pre-election fog lifted. John Towfighi and Matt Egan of CNN reported markets rose on optimism about an end to the war in Iran, as well as “the prospect of policy gridlock under a divided government, which can curb excess spending and create a more predictable outlook for markets. The VIX, which measures expectations for volatility, sank almost 20 percent.”  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and Nasdaq Composite Indexes experienced significant post-midterm election gains, according to a source cited by Towfighi and Egan. 

• Checked their compasses. Investor optimism dissipated on Thursday. Major U.S. stock indexes gave back Wednesday’s gains and more, and the VIX surged higher. Ben Levisohn of Barron’s reported:  

“The selling might seem extreme, but not when you consider how Wall Street works. Everyone has a financial model that projects growth in the years to come, which is ultimately used to derive a price target. With the Democrat sweep, however, all those growth targets have to be tossed in the rubbish bin. Investors now have to consider how quickly data centers can actually be built, and what that will mean for the companies selling products into the ecosystem.” 

On Friday, the stock market experienced a modest rebound. Major U.S. stock indexes finished last week lower, although they remain in positive territory year-to-date. Yields on U.S. Treasuries moved lower over the week. 

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. 

Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.  

SEEING RED? You open an account statement, and it shows numbers in red. Before you’ve read a single line, your stomach tightens and your anxiety rises. That reaction isn’t a coincidence. Research shows that we react reflexively to the color red.

 There’s a reason red evokes a strong response. We learn at an early age that red means stop or danger. It’s the color of stop signs, fire engines, and flashing police lights. Teachers use red pens to mark errors. Red is associated with danger, fear, and anger. 

In stock markets around the world, red is used to indicate the direction of the market. In the United States, red means share prices are falling. In China, it’s the opposite. Red means stocks are rising. The color that means “down” in New York means “up” in Shanghai. That’s important because it shows that our response to red is learned. A color actually tells you nothing about your investments, but our brains react to it anyway. 

In 2020, a group of researchers investigated how colors affect money decisions. They conducted eight experiments with more than 1,400 participants and found that showing information in red changed people’s reactions and expectations. 

• Participants took less risk. Participants were asked to choose between high- and low-risk financial options. When potential financial losses were shown in red, they were about 20 percent less likely to pick the riskier option than when the possible losses were shown in black. 

• Participants were less optimistic. Participants were shown stocks that had lost value over a 12-month period and asked what might happen next. When the losses were shown in red, they tended to expect prices to keep falling. When losses were shown in black or blue, many expected prices to recover. The data was the same, but the color changed the forecast. 

We often take color for granted when reviewing financial information, and we shouldn’t. Our subconscious response to color has the potential to affect our decision-making. One strategy is to ignore color and review the numbers, along with the time frame. A brief negative return in a 10-year upward trend is still a 10-year upward trend. It works the other way, too.  

Any time you have questions or concerns, please get in touch. We’re happy to review the numbers – no matter what color they are – and offer some perspective.

 WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT 

“A thimbleful of red is redder than a bucketful.”

― Henri Matisse, Artist   

* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ai-stocks-selloff-q3-earnings-guidance-8ce9f05a or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/11-09-26-Barrons-Why-Are-Stocks-Falling%20-%201.pdf

https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/04/investing/us-markets-midterm-elections

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/the-vix-volatility-index-just-spiked-70-heres-what-history-suggests-comes-next-125333946.html

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-ai-stocks-tech-nasdaq-f33b2af3 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/11-09-26-Barrons0The-Stock-Market-Celebrated%20-%204.pdf

https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/11-09-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%205.pdf

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026

https://www.verywellmind.com/the-color-psychology-of-red-2795821

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3933460/

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2992812 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/11-09-26-Visual-Finance-Effects-of-Red%20-%2010.pdf

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/7951202-a-thimbleful-of-red-is-redder-than-a-bucketful